Thoughts as we near the end of the regular season

March 7th, 2008 | by The Prowler |

Pitt has had a long and turbulent road this season which has led to some long faces and frustrated fans at times. There is no doubt that this team is struggling and that it has its weaknesses. I am not sure I am willing to buy into all the hype that Dixon can’t coach or the players aren’t talented, because these problems have really only been since after the Georgetown game, and they have progressively gotten worse. Pitt played some good games in the early part of the season, including Oklahoma St., Washington, and Duke (who are all the equivalent of at least someone in the Big East) and they didn’t seem to have their current troubles with any of those teams. As many people have said on various message boards and in the media, this one comes down to a few issues. First, there seems to be a lack of commitment and effort lately on the defensive and rebounding end of the game. Both of these aspects require a strong desire and pride at being good. This team doesn’t have either of those things.

Second, this team lacks experience and leadership. When Mike Cook got injured, I don’t think many of us realized what kind of leadership he brought to the team. When Fields went down, we had lost both our emotional (Cook) leader and our floor general. Ronald Ramon did an admirable job of filling it at point guard, a position he never played before, but he wasn’t able to bring any emotional leadership and he was more of a manager of the ball than a floor general. Keith Benjamin, the other senior, got his first real opportunity to contribute as a starter because of the injuries. While he is a senior, his lack of real game time compared to Cook and Fields, and even Ramon, made him an unlikely candidate to assume the leadership position. While Sam Young is a great player, and, in my opinion, currently the best player on the team, he doesn’t have that leadership quality that will make his team rally around him. There are multiple reasons for this, but the most obvious one is that the leadership usually comes from a guard much like it does from the quarterback in football. The rest of the options are freshmen. It does happen, but it is rare that a freshman steps in and becomes the leader of a team in his first year.

This issue with leadership isn’t just an issue of what is happening in games. For anyone who has played organized sports, you know that the leadership comes out strongest in two situations. It comes out in clutch moments in games and it comes out in practice. For the most part of conference play, aside from Ramon hitting a huge three against WVU, Pitt has lacked the emergence of a leader in clutch situations. In fact, aside from that three-pointer, Pitt could probably be called anti-clutch throughout conference play. The lack of leadership was a glaring issue when game after game, coming down to the wire, Pitt couldn’t even get a look at the basket for a chance to tie or win.

In practice the team leader is the one who sets the example by working the hardest. He runs harder and faster than everyone else. He isn’t satisfied with the way a play ran and makes the team run it over and over again. He is the one who calls his teammates out, in the privacy of the practice court, and commands them to step up their game for the benefit of everyone else. I haven’t been to a Pitt practice, but I would assume that Levance Fields was the one doing that for Pitt all season. The fact that he worked so hard to slim down and quicken his game in the off-season, challenging Mike Cook and others to do the same, is just one example of why I believe that Fields is that guy in practice who just isn’t willing to let his team run through it half-assed.

This leads us to the third reason for Pitt’s struggles, and that is the injuries. In addition to costing Pitt two if its most crucial players and forcing Dixon to play four freshmen in his rotation; it is precisely these two injuries that cost Pitt its team leadership throughout the Big East schedule. There were other injuries that added to the issues of depth and the ability to run full practices. There is no doubt that these things are some part of Pitt’s woes. But I believe that a significant part of Pitt’s struggles, especially with finding the heart and pride to play hard-nose defense, goes back to these injuries robbing Pitt of the two people who could inspire this team to greatness. I believe that if Young had gotten hurt instead of Cook, even though Young is averaging nearly 20 points per game, that this team would have been much better suited to continue its winning ways. After all, one of the complaints about Young is that he is more self-centered whereas Cook was the emotional center of this team. If Ramon had gotten hurt instead of Fields, then there are at least two games we likely wouldn’t have lost (Cincinnati and Villanova) because his presence alone would have kept those games from coming down to the last possession. And if they did manage to be last possession games, I guarantee Pitt would have gotten a shot off with Fields at point, even if the shot didn’t go in.

To further illustrate my point about the loss of leadership being a major factor, consider the way Pitt has played since the Dayton game. They blew out a no-name team (expected); they beat the no. 6 team in the country by 9, dominating the entire game (only the second game down two starters, so their confidence and identity were still in tact); then they started losing close games (throw in the anomalies of a big Rutgers loss and a big St. John’s win); then they started looking really bad, like they are a bottom feeder in this league (Marquette, Louisville, ND, WVU). Sure, they have played their worst since Fields got back, but that relates to his leadership as well. I have said it before, but I believe that this team had lost its identity little by little after those two injuries to the point where, when Fields returned, the team seemed to expect him to single-handedly fix the problems. Not only was that unrealistic, but it led to the team losing even more focus than when Fields was out of the lineup. Unfortunately at this point in the season, even with Fields back, the team has been so lost for so long that I am not sure Fields can bring his leadership back quick enough to turn the team around.

All of this means that we have to reconsider what our standards for a successful season are. I do understand that by being successful you set the standard of expectation for not just that same level of success, but continued improvement. Those kind of expectations just aren’t realistic at this point. Pitt isn’t going to be a final four team. They (almost certainly, unless they find the heart to play defense) aren’t going to win the Big East Tournament. What our expectations for them were after beating Duke and Georgetown aren’t going to be realized at this point. We can call the season lost, which some have. And that is fine, since ultimately a shot at a championship (league or national) is what we all want. Personally, since I am a Pitt fan, I am willing to readjust my expectations to still give us something to look forward to since there are still games left. After all, football had an awful season, but we readjusted our expectations to the point that beating WVU fired up the fans and media to the level that you might think we actually did win a national championship (or even finish with a winning record).

So, since Pitt is a LONG shot for a final four or a Big East Championship, what would make this season a success at this point? What can we point to or hope for to end this season on a high note? First of all, Pitt has to beat DePaul. If they lose to them, this season will, in my opinion, be a bust. A win over DePaul would give Pitt 10 conference wins which is a good feat in this league when healthy, but actually a great feat considering how banged up Pitt has been all season. (I know that someone recently discounted the injury talk after the Syracuse game saying that every team is banged up this time of year. But the point regarding Pitt is that they have been this banged up all through conference play. It isn’t a home stretch issue, but a season long one.) Second, they have to win a game in each of the Big East and NCAA tournaments. First round exits are ok for 10 seeds, but Pitt is better than that. They need a win in each tournament. If they could manage two wins in the NCAA tourney, I would believe that this team did regain its heart and I would see that as an enormous success. Third, they need to out-rebound DePaul and their first round match-ups in both tourneys, and they need to hold those same three teams under 45% shooting (a number that a year ago would have been what the best team shot against them). Doing those things would show that the team committed themselves to not only recognizing their deficiencies, but working through them and truly bettering themselves after going in the opposite direction steadily the past two months. Finally, they need to play the rest of their games, win or lose, with the intensity of a team that truly believes they can win their games.

Those are my updated expectations for this Pitt team. They are capable of doing all of the things I suggested and I would be as proud of them as I have been of any Pitt team should they actually accomplish them.

  1. 9 Responses to “Thoughts as we near the end of the regular season”

  2. By Pitt84 on Mar 7, 2008 | Reply

    I have to be honest, the number of days off since the last game has seemed to cause everyone to go a little crazy, in my opinion. Everyone is talking in sweeping prose about the troubles of this team. It is not that dramatic.

    First off, they will not lose to Depaul on Sunday. Look a little deeper into what Pitt has done and they have handled all of the teams below them in the standings and have lost to the teams above them in the standings. Two “flukes”. Georgetown and Rutgers. Truthfully if you flip those two games around, people are probably a lot more calm about Pitt. Depaul is playing to get to New York, so frankly they ain’t that good. WVU blew them out on Depaul’s home court. WVU does not blow out anyone away from Morgantown.

    I do agree with your point that a lot of guys may have been relying to much on Levance to come back and lead the charge. I said several weeks ago I did not like when Sam and Dejuan kind of threw Ron under the bus when they made their comments about “everything will be in place when Levance gets back.”

    What is a successful season for this team? A 7th NCAA tournament in a row is a huge success. Everyone scoffed at Gottlieb when he said this team was NIT bound when Levance went down. There was a whole lot of truth in that statement.

    What do I expect Pitt to do in the BET? I have seen lots of projections that we could get Seton Hall or Nova next Wednesday. If we do I think we win at MSG against either of those teams. Night two against the number two (probably Louisville). I don’t know. The game at the Pete was pretty competitive so why wouldn’t this one be as well. But Louisville is playing well, so it would not shock me to lose.

    I think we get a 7 seed in the NCAA. A 7/10 matchup is always interesting. Usually a champion from a smaller conference. It depends upon the match up, but I think Pitt wins. A second round game against a 2 seed could be Wisconsin, Texas, Duke or Kansas according to Lunardi’s bracketology. All tough games and probably not one that this Pitt team can win.

    So I guess I am predicting one win in the BET and one in the NCAA. To me that is success without explanation.

  3. By The Prowler on Mar 7, 2008 | Reply

    Thanks for the comments, Pitt84. I don’t think I was getting a little crazy about all the problems of this Pitt team. I have defended them through thick and thin in the midst of all of their current struggles. My purpose was to give voice to what we should really expect out of this team considering where they are right now. I didn’t list making the NCAA as an expectation of success at this point only because I believe they are already in. So I was trying to give an idea of what is left to accomplish that we can reasonably look for and that should leave us feeling good about this team. It sounds like you and I have the exact same expectations to finish out the season: beat DePaul and win 1 game in each tournament. I don’t expect them to lose to DePaul at all. But I list it as necessary to see the season as successful because it would be a crippling blow to the other two goals (1 win in each tournament) by sending Pitt into the post-season on a loss to a team they should beat.

    I think you are right about Pitt being right where they should be considering the current make-up/health of the team. The reason people like me try to analyze their current situation beyond just accepting that they are where they should be is because so many people seem to think that their current situation constitutes a huge failure. I am not one of those people. I think Pitt is right at, or slightly above what should be expected of a team with virtually no bench that has used 4 freshmen through the heart of one of the toughest league schedules out there. But since there are a lot of naysayers who believe Pitt has fallen apart, those of us who don’t believe that do often find ourselves trying to support the notion that, just as you said, this Pitt team is really where we should reasonably expect them.

    I wanted to reframe the whole issue of what constitutes success because the reality is, this isn’t a final four team. That is acceptable, but people need to put it in their minds. If they lose in the first round, or if they make an amazing run to the final four and then lose, that loss will be just as painful. But in the past, Pitt should have made it past the sweet 16 and a loss there felt like a let down. This year, making the sweet 16 would be HUGE. I want people to consider that so they can cheer Pitt on as it closes out its season knowing full well that every win we pick up from here on out is a good thing and a loss, especially past the first round of each tourney, is a loss that doesn’t constitute the end of Pitt’s winning program. It is simply a loss that closes out a solid, if less satisfying chapter, while hopefully leading us into a brighter chapter next year.

  4. By Colt_Convert on Mar 9, 2008 | Reply

    Prowler, great, great insight into the Pitt Basketball team…as always, you write in a rational and sane way, and are the eternal optimist when it comes to Pitt. That’s a good thing.

    Without a lot of justification, my expectations for claiming a good season, are at least two games in the Big East Tourney. Given the aura of NYC, and that there are some Pitt ties there, I’m hoping we can re-focus and play with some heart to win at least two.

    As for the NCAA Tourney, I was going to say two there as well. Looking at the projected number 2’s however, I don’t see Pitt beating any of them right now. One win in the Dance would be nice; two wins would be amazing.

  5. By WVU_ftw on Mar 9, 2008 | Reply

    for WVU I am just hoping for one win in the BET, I think we will handle Providence just fine like we did twice this year. Most likely lose the 2nd game, but at that point we are safely into the NCAAs. after that I could see them catching lightning in a bottle and winning a couple games- so the sweet 16 is not out of the question for this team.

    Pitt has the *potential to win 2, maybe 3 games in the BET. They historically do pretty well up in the MSG so Id be very suprised if they dont win 1 or 2.

    *Im not predicting them to win 3, but they could get hot in the garden. Ive seen it before. winning 2 depends on the matchup in round 2.

  6. By colt_convert on Mar 10, 2008 | Reply

    I really didn’t get to see many highlights or a broadcast of the DePaul game. Was there anything that Pitt did to encourage us that they could make a run in the tournaments? DePaul still put up quite a few points against us. I’m just hopeful that Pitt’s offense has re-kindled their confidence, and that could translate into improved defense.

    Thoughts?

  7. By The Prowler on Mar 10, 2008 | Reply

    Sorry I haven’t gotten a post up about the DePaul game yet. I will get one on this afternoon. I have my bathroom being torn out and a new one put in, so the house is chaos right now.

    To give a short answer, as I see it, Pitt gives us something to be excited about because they put up 98 points on 56% shooting. While defense has been a struggle, in almost every game (other than Marquette), if Pitt made some shots they still would have won. So they can make a run if they can keep hot shooting. Also, they held DePaul under 45% shooting. The number of points is a bit deceiving because of the number of possessions. I think Pitt beats Cinci in the first game and based on how they played Louisville last time, I think they can beat them this time, though it will depend on how well they are shooting. A shooting day like yesterday and they can beat just about anyone.

  8. By Pitt84 on Mar 10, 2008 | Reply

    WVU_ftw

    I just don’t see WVU having much success in the NCAAs. They really, struggled in the second half against a very bad St. John’s team. Looking at the different bracketology’s WVU is at least an 8 and as much as a 12. I just can’t see them beating an equal or better team essentially on the road. I wish them luck, but they seem to be a whole different team away from Morgantown.

  9. By WVU_ftw on Mar 10, 2008 | Reply

    this is true, WVU isn’t the same team on the road. but we did go 4-5 on the road in the Big East this year which isnt great but oh well. I could see us winning 2 games, in recent years we’ve done quite well in post season play (See Elite 8, Sweet 16, and NIT Champs over 3 year period). Totally different team, coaching staff, I know- but its not out of the question. As a WVU fan, Im just happy to get a shot at the tourney. My expectations are low so even a first round exit doesn’t sting too bad.

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